It's time to talk about dialogue with N. Korea

President Park Geun-hye

Two Koreas urged to come to table for turnaround

By Yi Whan-woo

South Korea needs to resume talks with North Korea to make a turnaround in inter-Korean relations despite lingering concerns over Pyongyang’s possible fifth nuclear test, analysts said Wednesday.

Citing a lack of sincerity, President Park Geun-hye and the Ministry of National Defense rebuffed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s overture for inter-Korean military talks, made in a speech at the ruling Workers’ Party Congress last week.

Some analysts agreed with the Park administration, claiming Pyongyang is using “sheer rhetoric” as part of its repeated cycle of peace overtures following military provocations.

However, some other former government officials, politicians and scholars in South Korea and the U.S. said it is time for Seoul to reconsider its hostile policy toward North Korea and engage in talks with Pyongyang.

“Of course we need to talk with North Korea in line with Kim Jong-un’s proposal,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. “The Park government needs to better manage security on the Korean Peninsula as it has become evident that Seoul’s confrontational policy only bought Pyongyang time to advance its nuclear capabilities.”

Yang said the inter-Korean talks, if resumed, may help the President ease concerns about her lame-duck presidency. Her single five-year term is slated to end in early 2018.

Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department coordinator for the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, also raised concerns over the Kim Jong-un regime’s advancement in nuclear missile technology during a discussion organized by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C. Tuesday. The framework established in 1994 was aimed at freezing Pyongyang’s nuclear development and replacing related facilities with light water reactors.

Minority opposition People’s Party Co-Chairman Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo called on the government to take “more effective measures” in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear program while the party’s floor leader Rep. Park Jie-won advocated for inter-Korean military talks.

Citing the U.S.-Soviet Union dialogue during the Cold War, Ahn said “the government should reconsider whether it can curb North Korea’s nuclear development exclusively through sanctions.”

Park Jie-won, who was chief of staff to the late President Kim Dae-jung from 1998 to 2003, asked the Park administration to “be aggressive in holding military dialogue” although he assessed Kim Jong-un’s offer as “a mere cliche.”

Robert Carlin, a scholar and a participant in the SAIS discussion participants, speculated that it would be optimal to hold the inter-Korean dialogue before South Korea and the U.S. begin their Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercises in August. The UFG is one of the annual joint drills between the two allies, which North Korea has denounced as “a rehearsal for invasion.”

“This offer is important because there is only a small window between now and when the August joint exercises start,” he said. “When those start and if nothing good is going on, tensions are going to go back up again and chances of something bad happening are going to increase.”

NK’s intent still doubted

In his speech, Kim Jong-un asked the two Koreas to “respect and cooperate with each other as partners for unification” while stopping all hostile acts.

He then mentioned the cross-border propaganda broadcasts and anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign from South Korea as well as disputes concerning the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. He also demanded the U.S. withdraw its forces from South Korea, claiming it has been “escalating tension in the region.”

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said he partly agrees with the arguments that Pyongyang only intends to settle “thorny issues” concerning South Korea through military talks and then turn hostile again.

The defense ministry resumed its loudspeaker broadcasts after Pyongyang carried out its fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6.

North Korea also has been paranoid about civic activists, many of them North Korean defectors, who have been launching balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets critical of the Kim Jong-un regime.

The two Korean naval forces have confronted each other for years at the U.N.-created NLL that North Korea refuses to recognize.

“Under such circumstances, it is important to pick the right agenda at the right time for possible inter-Korean dialogue,” Kim Yong-hyun said.

Yang said North Korea is likely to use the Seoul-Pyongyang talks as a “stepping stone” to continue pursuing its one-on-one dialogue with the U.S to end the 1950-53 Korean War.

Carlin said Pyongyang could be "implicitly signaling that they understand that the South Koreans have a role to play” in the replacement of the Korean War armistice by dealing with MDL issues.